Home
>
Political
>
The Second Coming in Albania

The Second Coming in Albania

Blessed with Chinese GDP growth rates (7-8% annually in each of the last 3 years) and German inflation (4%, down from 32% in 1997, mostly attributable to increases in energy and housing costs), it is easy to forget Albania's Somali recent past.

In 1997, following the collapse of a series of politically-sanctioned pyramid schemes in which one third of the impoverished population lost its meager life savings, Albania imploded. The mob looted 700,000 guns from the armories of the army and the police and went on a rampage, in bloody scenes replete with warlords, crime, and 1500 dead. It took 5% of GDP to recapitalize Albania's tottering banks and overall GDP dropped by 7% that year. During the two preceding years, Albania has been the IMF's poster boy (as it is again nowadays). Since October 1991, the World Bank has approved 43 projects in the country, committed close to $570 million and disbursed two thirds of its commitments. This, excluding $100 million after the 1999 Kosovo crisis and $50 million for agricultural development.

The European Investment Bank (EIB), the EBRD, the EU, and the Stability Pact have committed billions to the region for infrastructure, crime fighting, and institution building projects. Albania stood to benefit from this infusion and from a future Stabilization and Association Agreement with the EU (similar to Macedonia's and Croatia's). Yet, as Chris Patten (the Commissioner in charge of aid) himself admitted to "The Economist": "The EU'S capacity for making political promises is more impressive than our past record of delivering financial assistance". The aid was bungled and mired in pernicious bureaucratic infighting. The EU's delegation in Tirana was recently implicated in "serious financial irregularities".

The economic picture (if notoriously unreliable official statistics are to be trusted) has been mixed ever since.

The budget deficit hovers around 9% (similar to Macedonia's, Albania's war ravaged neighbor). The (very soft and very long term) external debt is at a nadir of 28% of GDP (though still 150% of exports) and foreign exchange reserves cover more than 4 months of imports. This is reflected in the (export averse) stable exchange rate of the lek. But the overall public debt is much higher (70%) and the domestic component may well be unsustainable. Money supply is still roaring (+12%), interest rates are punishingly high (8% p.a.) though in steep decline, and GDP per capita is less than $1000. It is still one of Europe's poorest countries (especially its rural north). Most of its GDP growth is in construction and trade. Health and education are decrepit and deteriorating. And people vote with their feet (emigrate in droves) and wallets (the economy is effectively dollarized).

Privatization receipts which were supposed to amortize public debt did not materialize (though there were some notable successes in 2000, including the completion of the privatization of land and of the important mining sector). Negative sentiment towards emerging economies, Albania's proximity to the Kosovo and Macedonia killing fields, and global recession make this prospect even more elusive. Had it not been for the $500 million in remittances from 20% of the workforce who are employed in Greece and Italy - Albania would have been in dire straits. Money from Albanian drug dealers, immigrant smugglers, and other unsavory characters still filters in from Prague, Zurich, and the USA. These illicit - but economically crucial - funds may explain the government's foot dragging on the privatization of the omnipresent Savings Bank (83% of all deposits, no loans, owns 85% of all treasury bills, 2% net return on equity) and its reluctance to overhaul the moribund banking system and enact anti money laundering measures. It took crushing pressure by IFI's to force the government to hive off the Savings Bank's pension plan business into Albapost, the local Post Office.

In the intervening years, Albania got its fiscal act together (though its tax base is still minimal) and made meaningful inroads into the informal economy (read: organized crime), not least by dramatically improving its hitherto venal and smuggler-infested customs service. A collateral registry has been introduced and much debated bankruptcy and mediation laws may be enacted next year. Everything, from the operations of the Central Bank to the executive branches is being revamped. Those who remained in Albania are much more invigorated than they have been in a long time.

But the problems are structural. Albania is among the few countries in our post-modern world which rely on agriculture (55%) rather than industry (24%), or services (21%). Only 40% of the population live in cities and female illiteracy is still at 24%. Tourism (especially of the archeological kind) is promising. But there are less than 6 computers and 40 phones per 1000 citizens and less than 40% of the roads are paved (Albanians were forbidden to own private cars until 1985). FDI amounts to a measly $50 million a year and aid per capita has tripled to c. $160 since 1997. Pervasive electricity shortages (despite budget draining subsidies of imported energy) hamper economic activity. Albania was rated 100th (out of 174) in the UNDP's Human Development Index and 90th (out of 175) in UNICEF's Report on the State of the World's Children (under-five mortality). Its neighbors ranked 55-73.

The isolationist legacy of the demented and paranoid Enver Hoxha is only partly to blame. Mismanagement, corruption, the criminalization of society, and tribalism are equally at fault in post-Communist Albania. Everyone takes bribes - not surprising when a senior Minister earns less than $1000 a month (ten times the average salary). A well developed, though fast eroded, social (extended family, village, tribe) safety net ensures that only 20% of the population are under the official poverty line. But these extended ties are one of the reasons for local unemployment (almost 20% of the workforce) - immigrant workers (mostly family members) constitute more than 25% of those employed.

With a youthful (32) Prime Minister (Ilir Meta, overwhelmingly re-elected this year) who is an economist by profession, Albania is reaching out to its neighbours. As early as 1992 it joined the improbable (and hitherto ineffective) Black Sea Economic Cooperation Pact (with Greece, Turkey and ... Azerbaijan and Armenia!) - which currently lobbies for the re-opening of the Danube River. Albanian cheap exports are competitive only if transported via river. Albania signed recently a series of bilateral agreements with Montenegro regarding transportation on the Bojana river and the Skadar Lake, use of harbors, the extension of railways and roads, and the regulation of aviation rights. Despite the fact that Macedonia is (abnormally for geographical neighbors) not an important trading partner, Albania has responded positively to all the Macedonian initiatives for economic and political integration of the region. It is here, in regional collaboration and synergy, that Albania's future rests. Should the region deteriorate once more into mayhem and worse, Albania would be amongst the first and foremost to suffer. Hence its surprisingly conciliatory stance in the recent crisis in Macedonia. It seems that Albanian politicians have wisely decided to move from a "Great Albania" to a prosperous one.

About The Author

Sam Vaknin is the author of "Malignant Self Love - Narcissism Revisited" and "After the Rain - How the West Lost the East". He is a columnist in "Central Europe Review", United Press International (UPI) and ebookweb.org and the editor of mental health and Central East Europe categories in The Open Directory, Suite101 and searcheurope.com. Until recently, he served as the Economic Advisor to the Government of Macedonia.

His web site: http://samvak.tripod.com

executive chauffeured services Bradford .. Madison to Airport car

In The News:

Getting virus alerts on your iPhone? Tech expert Kurt “CyberGuy" Knutsson helps you learn how to handle fake scam alerts and boost security.

Tech expert Kurt “CyberGuy" Knutsson says opening emails is safe, but risks arise from interacting with links, attachments or HTML content.

Tech expert Kurt “CyberGuy" Knutsson reveals four signs of compromised Social Security numbers and offers five steps to protect yourself.

Tech expert Kurt “CyberGuy" Knutsson discusses how MAB Robotics' Honey Badger 4.0, a versatile robot, now walks underwater with amphibious skills.

An updated Android trojan called FakeCall hijacks bank calls. Tech expert Kurt “CyberGuy" Knutsson says Android phone manufacturers and Google need to step up their game on security.

The Massimo Modular E9 is a sleek, smart and comfy tiny home in 409 square feet. Tech expert Kurt “CyberGuy" Knutsson takes a closer look at what the future of housing might look like.

Every stock trader should consider a virtual private network to safeguard their trading, according to tech guru Kurt "CyberGuy" Knutsson.

Apple recently announced its new lineup of Macs and rolled out Apple Intelligence, its latest artificial intelligence-powered feature for its products.

A Swiss-engineered robot can climb ladders, showing why it's at the cutting edge of autonomous robotic solutions for harsh industrial settings.

Kurt "CyberGuy" Knutsson presents the cities targeted most by robocalls, why this is happening and what you can do about it to protect your privacy.

Stay up to date on the latest AI technology advancements and learn about the challenges and opportunities AI presents

Kurt "CyberGuy" Knutsson shares tips and suggestions for how to get the best use out of the updated Calendar app available with the latest iOS update.

Your Social Security number, your unique identifier used for many purposes, has likely been leaked on the Dark Web; here are some steps you can take to protect yourself.

Researchers have developed a new technology that creates strong, sticky fibers capable of lifting objects and capturing things from a distance.

Smart rings track the same things that smartwatches do, including steps, sleep and a general overview of your overall health, and they tend have more battery life than smartwatches.

Researchers have developed a robotic finger that can perform routine medical exams like those conducted by doctors, helping to address the growing shortage of trained professionals.

Stay up to date on the latest AI technology advancements and learn about the challenges and opportunities AI presents now and for the future.

Insurance administrative services company Landmark Admin reported that a data breach from a May cyberattack affected over 800,000 people.

Sotheby's will auction the first artwork created by Ai-Da, the world's first robot artist created in 2019 by British gallerist Aidan Meller.

More than 250 million users of the Verizon Messages app will have to switch to another app. Verizon is shutting down Messages in the next month.

Tech expert Kurt “CyberGuy" Knutsson provides a list of 10 celebrities who are the most targeted by deepfake scams, including Tom Hanks.

Tech expert Kurt “CyberGuy" Knutsson discusses how Vast's Haven-1, launching in 2025, transforms space living with human-centric design.

UnitedHealth confirms over 100 million Change Healthcare users had their data stolen. Kurt “CyberGuy" Knutsson reveals what happened and what caused the breach.

Tech expert Kurt “CyberGuy" Knutsson explains how iOS 18 brings new text formatting and animated effects to the Messages app.

Whether you're a social media veteran or novice, Facebook friend request scams are common. Kurt the CyberGuy provides tips to keep your account safe.

The Second Coming in Albania

Political